Dr Haroons Training Centre

The wild buffalos wife : Biostatistics

What is the probability of getting attacked by a wild buffalo ?  It all depends . Especially on probability calculations . If i am walking through the streets of trivandrum it is near zero unless one of them jumps out from the zoo enclosure . 

But at least once i was thankful to a wild buffaloes wife or rather wives ( they are polygamous i suppose ) . Let me explain . A few years back thanks to some miscalculation of journey times we landed for wildlife viewing at dusk . And had to walk to reach our place of stay in near darkness . Wild life enthusiasts excuse i am speaking of gaur , the 1000 + kilogram wild indian bison ( not exactly buffalo )  . This thing has and do kill people when irritated .  I saw it around 20 feet away and we were on foot . Forest guards were with us but they dont respect guards always . 

If the probability of attack depends  1 in 3 in the presence   of a trained forest guard and the probability of  foul mood of the bison is 1 in 10  and the probability of the bison being on the exact walking path is 1 in 5 whats the combined probability of attack by the bison ? Its a probability question and statistics depend heavily on probability . Biostatistics which is just one of the applications of statistics including drug research and even most of medical journals depend heavily on statistics . The possibility of a medication being effective or the probability that a cancer patient survives 5 years  are all dependant on probabilities and statistics .

Coming back to the bison problem we all know that the three probability risks are important and according to a simple probability law the three probabilities are simply to be multiplied  (1/3)*(1/10)*(1/5) =1/150  Not complicated mathematics at all  . So the chance of attack on that day was only 1/150(less than 1 percent )  and 149/150 chance was for my survival . And thats why i could write this blog today . 

And hope you remember i wrote about the buffaloes wife /wives/husband in the title .(that could be a female bison too though the herd was nearby ) . Because out of the three values i multiplied the most important probability in my favour was the bisons mood that day . So thanks to the buffaloes wife (for keeping the husband bison in good mood at that instant ) and also  probability which reduces the risk for such events ,  for saving my life . I will not take my chances ( chance is again probability ) with a buffalo on foot again ....Many of daily life big risks are reduced in reality ( i mean in probability terms ) because the fractions  get multiplied and because they are all fractions the risks get reduced .  

Question for you : The risk of slipping when climbing a tree is 1 in 10 and the risk of hitting the head or serious injury is 1 in 20 . What is the risk of serious injury when a person climbs the tree ?  Awaiting your answers . 


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